A live look at strategy, service, inventory, and supplier performance for the four-week reporting period ending July 27, 2026.
A high-level snapshot of the period — where we landed, what moved, and what to watch.
Service & Forecast · Company-wide service attainment landed at 97.0% (goal 97.5%), down 0.38 vs LM vs. last month. Total forecast accuracy came in at 0.56% — with Manual items (-3.73%, service 87.90%) doing most of the dragging while Profiled items hold the line.
Sales & Lost Dollars · Actual sales of $30.1M (LP Actual $30.17M · under $167,365). Lost sales at $921K — up 34.4% MoM, roughly 3.1% of actual sales — 28,458 items · 1,259 vendors.
Inventory & Receipts · Ended the period at $89.8M on hand (25 days DOH) against $69.8M on order (20 days DOO). Overstock at $23.2M — 33% of on-hand. Bottom-3 supplier receipt performance: Daisy Brand, Hershey, Dot Foods.
What to watch · Manual item count is now 4,072 (+15.1% MoM); Manual on-hand at $12.9M. PO on-time discipline: 40.96% late across 4,023 POs. Reining in manual growth and recovering service on the low-performing suppliers is the fastest path back to a 97.5%+ service month.
Toggle across the forecast populations. Accuracy is trending up on Profiled and New items, while Manual continues to drag on service.
Company-wide forecast health.
Investment posture across forecasting, components, and stock status. Sales dipped modestly while manual and discontinued dollars grew again.
Attainment holds at 97.0%. Lost sales surged from $685K to $921K. Below: rolling attainment, vendor-level service, and the categories that hurt us most.
| Vendor | Days | Ord $ | Rec $ | Open $ | % Doll | % Ord | % Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Topco Associates LLC | 20 | $73.83M | $70.13M | $3.70M | 94.99% | 97.47% | 94.76% |
| Topco-WF | 18 | $61.49M | $59.61M | $1.88M | 96.94% | 97.13% | 95.51% |
| Kraft Heinz Foods Company | 14 | $31.16M | $29.03M | $2.13M | 93.15% | 93.36% | 91.96% |
| Procter & Gamble | 19 | $25.12M | $23.39M | $1.73M | 93.13% | 95.26% | 93.64% |
| Hershey Chocolate Co | 27 | $20.38M | $17.47M | $2.91M | 85.72% | 87.23% | 86.77% |
| Dot Foods Inc | 16 | $12.67M | $11.54M | $1.14M | 91.02% | 92.48% | 92.02% |
| Tillamook-County Creamery Assn. | 11 | $11.42M | $11.31M | $112K | 99.02% | 98.68% | 95.62% |
| General Mills | 10 | $11.25M | $10.24M | $1.00M | 91.08% | 91.18% | 89.85% |
| Hormel Foods Sales LLC | 13 | $10.31M | $9.89M | $421K | 95.92% | 95.08% | 91.98% |
| Tyson Foods Inc | 10 | $9.92M | $9.63M | $290K | 97.07% | 97.75% | 95.26% |
Service Attained is +0.28 higher than the same period a year ago. Long-term trend remains healthy despite the short-term dip.
Attainment of 97.0% (−0.08 vs LM; −0.6 across the last three months). Downtrend is small but consistent — worth watching.
Lost Sales $ increased 34.4% (from $685K to $921K). Last three months: $738K → $796K → $921K. Now 3.1% of Actual Sales vs. L2M average of 2.7%.
Top of the item-level miss list within the highest-forecast, highest-missed-service vendor. Reappearance after two clean periods.
On-hand grew 3.53% to $89.8M; on-order rose 1.75% to $69.8M. Days-on-hand and days-on-order each ticked up a day vs. last month.
Of 4,023 POs across 770 unique vendors, LATE contributes 40.96% — the largest share of the three-year view. Half of your top 25 suppliers are servicing below 95%.
| Company | Ticker | Exchange | 2023 $Rev | 2024 $Rev | 2025 $Rev | 2023 Net% | 2024 Net% | 2025 Net% | AF Spend | Score | Supplier Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kraft Heinz Manufacturer; grocery/condiments | KHC | Nasdaq / USA | $26.6B | $25.8B | $25.2B | 10.3% | 10.6% | -2.5% | $31.2M ord | 9/10 | Three straight years of volume decline plus a 2025 impairment year and a planned split — highly motivated to defend shelf space. Our 93.2% dollar fill is below their peer set; push service credits alongside price. |
Hershey Manufacturer; confection/snacks | HSY | NYSE / USA | $11.2B | $11.2B | $11.0B | 16.4% | 15.6% | 8.5% | $20.4M ord | 8/10 | Cocoa inflation cut net margin nearly in half while their fill to us fell to 85.7% on a 27-day lead time. Worst service of any top-5 vendor — tie any 2027 cost increase to a measured fill-rate commitment. |
Conagra Brands Manufacturer; frozen/grocery | CAG | NYSE / USA | $12.3B | $12.1B | $11.6B | 5.6% | 2.3% | 8.5% | $17.6M ord (2 divs) | 8/10 | Declining top line and a leveraged balance sheet make them one of the more flexible large vendors. Grocery and Frozen negotiate separately; combining the two divisions into one program is the single biggest untapped lever. |
Kellanova Manufacturer; snacks/cereal | K | NYSE / USA | $13.1B | $12.8B | $12.6B | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | $5.5M ord | 8/10 | Post-Mars-acquisition integration plus 86.5% fill to us and $741K open. Ownership transitions historically loosen list-price discipline — open the conversation now while their reps chase continuity. |
Kenvue Manufacturer; consumer health | KVUE | NYSE / USA | $15.4B | $15.5B | $15.7B | 11.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | $6.8M ord | 8/10 | Margins compressed every year since the J&J spin and the business is in play strategically. Their 41-day average delivery is the longest in our top 25 — a service-recovery plan should be a condition of the next cost increase. |
J.M. Smucker Manufacturer; coffee/spreads | SJM | NYSE / USA | $8.5B | $8.2B | $8.7B | 1.9% | 9.5% | -1.1% | $6.5M ord | 8/10 | Negative 2025 net on Hostess-related write-downs while carrying heavy debt. 91.9% fill with $523K open — one of the clearest candidates for a combined cost-and-service reset. |
General Mills Manufacturer; cereal/frozen | GIS | NYSE / USA | $20.1B | $19.9B | $19.5B | 12.4% | 12.0% | 11.0% | $11.2M ord | 7/10 | Soft volumes across cereal and refrigerated dough with margin still healthy; they are buying share with trade spend. 91.1% fill leaves room to trade incremental display support for reliability. |
Mondelez Manufacturer; biscuit/confection | MDLZ | Nasdaq / USA | $36.0B | $36.4B | $37.2B | 13.8% | 12.9% | 6.0% | $5.5M ord | 7/10 | Cocoa costs halved net margin and they are protecting volume with price-pack architecture. Our 89.9% fill on a 22-day lead time is the weakest of the DSD group — service is the leading issue, not price. |
Campbell's Company Manufacturer; soup/snacks | CPB | Nasdaq / USA | $9.4B | $9.6B | $10.3B | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.6% | $8.1M ord | 7/10 | Sovos acquisition lifted revenue but net margin has fallen by more than half. Service to us is excellent at 98.9% — press on cost and promotional depth, protect the current fill. |
Hormel Foods Manufacturer; protein/deli | HRL | NYSE / USA | $12.1B | $11.9B | $12.0B | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | $10.3M ord | 6/10 | Steady mid-single-digit margins and a reliable 95.9% fill. A dependable partner — best used as the benchmark when pressing weaker protein and deli vendors. |
PepsiCo (Frito-Lay) Manufacturer; snacks/beverages | PEP | Nasdaq / USA | $91.5B | $91.9B | $92.8B | 9.9% | 10.4% | 6.7% | $6.4M ord (DSD) | 6/10 | North America snack volumes have softened and 2025 margin fell on impairments, so promotional dollars are unusually available. DSD model means the ask is space-for-frequency, not warehouse cost. |
Tyson Foods Manufacturer; protein | TSN | NYSE / USA | $52.9B | $53.3B | $54.4B | -1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | $9.9M ord | 5/10 | Thin commodity margins limit list-price flexibility, but service is strong at 97.1% on a 10-day lead time. Value here is contracted volume and formula pricing rather than net cost concessions. |
Mars Wrigley Manufacturer; confection (private) | Private | — / USA | ~$50B | ~$52B | ~$55B | n/a | n/a | n/a | $9.2M ord | 5/10 | Private and now absorbing Kellanova, so no public margin pressure to exploit. Our 87.9% fill on a 31-day lead time is the real issue; escalate through the broker on allocation, not price. |
Procter & Gamble Manufacturer; HBC/household | PG | NYSE / USA | $82.0B | $84.0B | $84.3B | 17.9% | 18.4% | 18.2% | $25.1M ord | 4/10 | Best-in-class margins and little pressure to discount. Leverage is in logistics: 19-day average delivery and 93.1% fill mean freight terms, pallet configuration and truckload minimums are the realistic asks. |
Coca-Cola Manufacturer; beverages | KO | NYSE / USA | $45.8B | $47.1B | $48.6B | 23.4% | 22.6% | 22.0% | $8.9M ord | 3/10 | Growing revenue on 22%+ net margin and 98.2% fill; essentially no distress. Negotiations run through the bottler on marketing calendar and equipment, not on cost of goods. |
Altria (Philip Morris USA) Manufacturer; tobacco | MO | NYSE / USA | $24.5B | $24.0B | $24.0B | 34.4% | 46.4% | 45.5% | $7.8M ord | 3/10 | Extremely profitable and contractually rigid; 98.2% fill on a 10-day lead time. Value comes from merchandising contract tiers and buydowns rather than cost. |
| Vendor | Ord $ | Rec $ | % Doll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topco Associates | $64.1M | $60.9M | 95.0% |
| Topco-WF | $51.5M | $50.0M | 97.1% |
| Kraft Heinz | $26.5M | $24.7M | 92.9% |
| Procter & Gamble | $21.8M | $20.2M | 93.0% |
| Hershey | $17.6M | $14.9M | 84.3% |
| Dot Foods | $10.7M | $9.8M | 91.2% |
| General Mills | $10.3M | $9.4M | 91.2% |
| Tillamook | $8.9M | $8.5M | 95.5% |
| Tyson | $8.4M | $7.7M | 91.6% |
| Hormel | $7.8M | $7.4M | 94.8% |
15% fall between 85.7% and 89.87% — a concentrated set of underperformers driving the bulk of the miss.